Fire ExiaTier 1
at AK TCGKL Constructed Event
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slate Whetstone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |